Korea IT Times celebrates its 20th anniversary with Insightful columns from local and international thought leaders. Following contributions from experts across various fields in July, August, September, October, and November, we now introduce this December's column.
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Jin Hyung Kim, Emeritus Professor at KAIST: "AI Jesus Speaking 100 Languages, Miracle or Threat?"
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Jong-Shik Kim, Chair Professor of aSSIST University: "An Aging Society and Startups"
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Emanuel Pastreich, President of The Asia Institute: "Yoon Fights Dirty, Are Koreans Ready?"
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Sven Lindström, Executive VP, Midsummer: "Solar Energy Trends in 2025"
A tsunami of cheap Chinese solar panels flooding Europe, an increasing taste for rooftop solar, and a boom in small, medium, and large-scale battery storage are the three strongest trends in solar energy as we move into the new year, according to Midsummer Executive VP Sven Lindström--Ed.
By Sven Lindström
I have predicted global solar and renewable trends for the past ten years. Most of them, though not all, have been accurate. Looking back, it strikes me how much the global renewable energy market has changed over the years—and continues to change. For 2025, my crystal ball shows me the following:
Chinese Solar Panels Will Continue to Flood the European Market
High US tariffs on Chinese solar cells mean that Europe is becoming a more important export market for Chinese solar companies. The incoming Trump administration might raise tariffs on Chinese goods even higher, prompting the Chinese to hurry and get goods into the US before Trump's inauguration. Afterward, their focus will shift to the EU.
There are reports that solar panels are being sold for under €0.06/W in the EU. This is perhaps short-term good for the consumer, though not necessarily. With solar panels and inverters priced under €0.1/W, further reductions will not result in much lower prices for the end consumer. The bottom has likely been reached.
In the long term, this is detrimental to the environment, as silicon solar panels transported across half the world are not nearly as environmentally friendly as locally produced solar cells made with green energy.
For the European solar cell manufacturing industry, the Asian price dumping is disastrous. There is a lot of solar cell manufacturing capacity being built in the USA, shielded by the tariffs. However, the lack of European tariffs means the EU is effectively in the process of shutting down its own solar cell manufacturing. India recently announced a ban on the import of solar panels from China to protect its own industry, a crucial economic and geopolitical decision. The EU, by contrast, is doing nothing.
A Bright Future for Battery Storage
The increase in renewable energy within the electricity system promises an incredibly bright future for small, medium, and large-scale battery storage. The market is growing at record speed, and government subsidies are enhancing this development. The benefits are numerous: a more stable electricity system, improved preparedness for power cuts, and reduced costs for individuals and society. The trend is clear; local and central energy storage is on the rise.
Capacity Tariffs Changing Consumer Patterns
The cost of the electricity grid will be controlled by instantaneous power rather than consumed energy. Capacity tariffs are being introduced in an increasing number of markets, which will change consumer patterns. With the cost of electricity being controlled by how much power you take from the grid rather than merely kWh consumed, the system will favor the use of electricity at night when household and industrial consumption is lower. It will also favor households and businesses that produce their own electricity, reducing or eliminating the need to buy electricity from the grid.
This is fundamentally a positive development, as capacity tariffs make more sense than the variable charge per kWh used. Wires do not wear out from electricity passing through them, so a variable electricity grid fee is much less suitable and logical than a capacity tariff. The "fixed" electricity cost should consist only of capacity tariffs.
Boom for Rooftop Solar Energy
An electricity grid characterized by intermittent production from wind and solar will benefit more from solar cell installations on roofs than from large solar parks. Producing electricity "behind the electricity meter" on your own roof is much more profitable than feeding electricity into the main grid from a solar farm. On a factory roof, solar-generated electricity can reduce factory consumption, thereby bolstering network stability. Combined with the EU's new directive requiring solar cells on new public and eventually all new buildings, this creates ideal conditions for a rooftop solar boom, increasing the proportion of solar panels on roofs relative to large solar parks across the EU.
This area provides an opportunity for specialized European solar cell manufacturers to compete with Chinese producers of silicon solar panels. The latter are inexpensive but quite basic products. However, they (and their racks) are heavy—too heavy for most roofs. European manufacturers of more sophisticated products like thin-film solar cells, suitable for roofs and possibly even vehicles and various devices, can find a large, profitable niche here.
About the Author
Sven Lindström is the co-founder and Executive Vice President of Midsummer, a Swedish solar energy company that develops and markets equipment for the production of thin-film solar cells and manufactures, sells, and installs solar roofs. Lindström has over 20 years of experience in international business and the development of high-tech production equipment, including advanced solar energy solutions.
