India’s mobile services revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4%, increasing from $30.2 billion in 2023 to an estimated $39.3 billion by 2029. This growth will primarily be fueled by increased mobile penetration, especially in rural and underserved regions, alongside a significant expansion in the 5G-enabled mobile data segment, according to GlobalData analytics.
While revenue from mobile voice services is expected to decline at a CAGR of 2.5%, this decline will be offset by the robust growth in mobile data revenues, which are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 9.3% from 2024 to 2029. The rise in data consumption — driven by the broader deployment of 4G and 5G networks and the popularity of high-ARPU 5G plans — will boost overall market growth. The average monthly mobile data usage is expected to more than double from 23.9GB in 2024 to 51.5GB in 2029, fueled by increasing consumption of online video and social media content.
Initially, 4G will dominate the subscription landscape until 2026, but 5G subscriptions are projected to surpass 4G by 2029, capturing about 67% of total mobile subscriptions. This transition is supported by ongoing network rollouts, with operators like Vodafone Idea expanding 5G services across multiple circles, and Reliance Jio offering innovative 5G initiatives such as the "5G Upgrade Voucher," which provides unlimited 5G data for a year without additional costs.
Reliance Jio is expected to maintain its market leadership in subscriptions, capitalizing on its extensive 4G and upcoming 5G networks to meet the rising demand for high-speed connectivity. As 5G becomes the primary growth engine amid declining traditional voice revenue, operators that invest in rural reach, promote data-centric plans, and drive digital inclusion will be best positioned for sustained expansion. Overall, India’s mobile connectivity landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation, with 5G at the forefront of future growth and revenue opportunities.
Source: GlobalData.
